Thoughts on the Iowa Caucus by Dylan Zsigray ’18

Iowa Caucuses

How the Iowa Caucus Will Impact the New Hampshire Primary

On February 1, voters in Iowa traveled to voting sites to submit their votes in the first caucus in the 2016 Presidential Election.  The official election is set for November 8, 2016.  However, for the next five months, each state will host either primaries or caucuses to determine which candidates will win their respective party nominations.  The results from the Iowa Caucus were very interesting and surprising for a lot of voters.  The next major primary will be the New Hampshire Primary, which takes place on February 9, 2016.  Although the caucus does not say who will win the Presidency, it can provide a glimpse into how the rest of the primary season will work out. Below are predictions for the New Hampshire Primary based on the events that unfolded in the Iowa Caucus.

Republican Party:

  • Top 3:

 

  1. Ted Cruz – 27.7% – Awarded 8 Delegates
  2. Donald Trump – 24.3% – Awarded 7 Delegates
  3. Marco Rubio – 23.1% – Awarded 7 Delegates
  • Analysis:

 

Leading up to the caucus, Donald Trump had over a 4% lead going into the voting session.  It was surprising to see Ted Cruz overtake him during the vote.  Cruz ended up winning by close to 3%, which although a small margin, it is significant in the long run.  Recently, Cruz has attacked Trump over his statements and how he acts amongst other candidates.   This was especially true in the recent FOX News Debate, which Trump did not attend. This gave Cruz a chance to prove himself as the more worthy candidate.  Donald Trump, although ending up in second place, has proved that he not going to be leaving the top anytime soon.  He continues to lead the overall national poll.  Marco Rubio was considered the “Most Electable,” based on exit polls conducted by numerous sources, which means that he will most likely continue to climb and stay in the top three.

  • Forecast:

 

For the New Hampshire Primary, it is predicted that Donald Trump will win.  Iowa was more of Ted Cruz’s territory, which is why he came away with the win.  Donald Trump has maintained strong poll numbers going into the New Hew Hampshire Primary, leading Cruz by over 20%.  In terms of Cruz and Rubio, it is a toss-up.  If Cruz continues his momentum burst, then he’ll remain in second place. However, since the voters think that Rubio is the “Most Electable,” that may help him overtake Cruz.

Democratic Party:

  • Top 3:

 

  1. Hillary Clinton – 49.9% – Awarded 29 Delegates
  2. Bernie Sanders – 49.6% – Awarded 21 Delegates
  3. Mike O’Malley – 0.6% – Awarded 0 Delegates
    • Mike O’Malley has suspended his campaign
  • Analysis:

 

Mike O’Malley ending his bid for the presidency came as no surprise.  He has had low poll numbers all along and has not been able to prove his worthiness against Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.  In my opinion, the real reason that Hillary Clinton did not win by a larger margin was because of how the American people trust her. With the Benghazi Scandal during her Secretary of State tenure and her recent email scandal, the general public has not fully trusted her.  Bernie Sanders has a unique marketing campaign that has appealed to younger and more modern voters.  His slogan, “Feel the Bern,” is repeated throughout the halls of St. Ed’s and on social media.  Also, Sanders could have won had he won the coin tosses that ended up deciding the overall winner.  

  • Forecast:

 

It is predicted that Bernie Sanders will continue to gain even more momentum and overtake Hillary Clinton in next week’s New Hampshire Primary.  In-fact, it is predicted that Sanders will win New Hampshire while Clinton shifts her focus to Nevada and South Carolina (POLITICO).  However, based on how close the race has been between both candidates, it could come down to an extremely small margin when the Democrats choose their party’s nominee this summer.
*The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author. Additional information was taken from a politico.com article: (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/who-won-the-iowa-caucuses-218611)

**Totals mentioned above were taken from Bloomberg News (last updated 2/2/16)

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